What drives cross-country differences in export variety? A bilateral panel approach

A worldwide event like the 2020 Coronavirus outbreak can only reinforce the interest in modelling trade diversification as a key factor in countries’ vulnerability to external shocks. This paper adopts a detailed relative framework to study the determinants of product-level export variety in a large bilateral panel of developing and developed economies (16,770 country pairs in the period 1988–2014). We find that country pairs characterized by large differentials in productivity and in the makeup of the labour force differ in export variety patterns. This result holds after controlling for other endowments and for trade costs. Further, productivity plays a significant role in the reduction of export variety dissimilarities between countries belonging to different income groups. Hence, without successful technological convergence the low-income economies will not be able to reduce their exposure to export risk.     

A theory of operational cash holding,endogenous financial constraints,and credit rationing

This paper develops a theory of operational cash holding. Liquidity shocks due to delayed payments must be financed using cash or short-term debt. Debt holders provide an irrevocable credit line given a firm's expected insolvency risk, and equity holders select optimum cash holding. The model demonstrates the trade-off between cash holding and investing in fixed assets. Introducing uncertain cash flows leads to precautionary cash holding if debt holders impose financial constraints. Precautionary cash holding, in turn, reduces insolvency risk enhancing access to short-term finance. The theory shows that credit rationing can occur in the absence of market frictions. Using U.S. data from 1998 to 2012, empirical findings suggest that the decline in credit lines has contributed to the increase in cash holding in line with theoretical predictions.     

Fiscal and monetary interdependence

Where classical economics integrates the quantity theory of money with the concept of Ricardian equivalence, the tendency of recent macroeconomic presentations is to focus either upon money and inflation or upon taxation and debt. That neglect of classical monetary–fiscal integration is surprising, given an initiative by the International Monetary Fund that set credit, money, and fiscal policy within a single structure. This article places those ‘credit counterparts of broad money’ in the context of the Great Depression and the recent global financial crisis. The upshot is a set of conclusions: that, to counter the prospect of deflation, quantitative easing is a weak policy response; that fiscal deficits are better; and that cuts in taxation are preferable to increased government spending.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

非互惠的零关税待遇是否促进了受惠国的出口多样化——基于中美对非洲贸易政策的比较研究

非互惠的优惠贸易待遇是世界贸易组织和国际社会支持发展中国家尤其是最不发达国家发展的重要工具。为了评估该政策的效果,本文以中美对非洲实施的零关税待遇为例,采用2001—2017年HS8位贸易数据从整体、行业和区域层面评估了两种政策对受惠国出口多样化产生的影响。结果显示,美国零关税待遇分为AGOA-GSP和AGOA-服装两个条款,中国零关税待遇(FOCAC)在遵循WTO规则、受惠商品范围、受惠国家标准、原产地标准及政策有效期方面均优于AGOA-GSP,但在原产地标准灵活度和政策优惠力度方面低于AGOA-服装。这些特征导致三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响产生显著的差异。整体上,FOCAC和AGOA-服装对受惠国出口多样化均产生了显著的积极影响,而AGOA-GSP的影响不显著;行业层面,FOCAC对受惠国制造业、矿业和农业的出口多样化均产生了显著的促进作用,而AGOA的两个条款对受惠国三个细分行业出口多样化的影响均不显著;区域层面,三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响仅在部分区域发挥效果。     

广东自贸区与海南自贸区错位发展的路径选择

错位发展在经济领域是指经济发展水平不同、或产业发展阶段不同、或资源禀赋不同的地区采取各自功能定位的行业发展模式。实施错位发展战略有利于防止各区域产业的恶性竞争,促进各区域经济转型升级,构建协调有序的总体发展格局。广东和海南相继成立自贸区以后,两地在产业优势、发展阶段、人民币国际化路径、开放模式上存在错位发展的空间。广东自贸区和海南自贸区地理临近、产业互补,通过协调两地发展规划、海南自贸区借鉴广东自贸区基础设施建设以及体制机制建设经验、海南自贸区发展具有比较优势的产业和建设自贸区联席会议等方式,实现两地错位发展与深度合作,对于两省自身、所在区域及国家整体发展层面都有重要的意义。     

混合所有制改革是否有助于缓解人力资本配置扭曲

将人力资本在所有制企业间的配置扭曲（错配）理解为技术配置扭曲和规模配置扭曲两个方面，基于1998—2013年中国工业企业数据库的相关数据，探讨国有企业混合所有制改革影响人力资本配置扭曲的内生机理，结果表明：混合所有制改革鼓励非国有资本通过参股、控股和并购等方式参与到国有企业的生产决策中，这有助于完善国有企业的公司治理结构和利润分配机制，进一步缓解人力资本的技术配置扭曲和规模配置扭曲程度；相对于非行政垄断行业，行政垄断行业中国有企业混合所有制改革对于人力资本配置扭曲的缓解作用较小。     

广东省中小企业信贷融资方案

中小企业是我国未来经济发展的底层框架,但由于自身生命周期短、创业初期资金周转紧张、融资难度大等特点约束了普遍中小企业的进一步发展,让一些优质的项目、优质的企业在萌芽之中死亡。尽管我国政府近年来大力推广中小企业技术改革,中国人民银行也一再降准①降息,但中小企业融资缺口依然十分巨大。论文基于中小企业目前的发展状况以及各银行的信贷要求等方向出发,讨论中小企业信贷融资应该关注的重点,引导解决中小企业融资问题。     

Staying dry on Spanish wine: The rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement

After a long debate on wine import tariffs, the Italian Parliament rejected the Spanish-Italian trade agreement on 17 December 1905. This decision left Spain and Italy without a bilateral trade treaty for an entire decade. In the literature, broader political issues and local interests are alternatively indicated as the main drivers of the rejection. Based on a new database which collects economic and political variables (including MPs personal features) and using a probit model, this paper provides a quantitative analysis of the vote. Results show that constituency interests had a role in determining the result of the vote on the trade treaty. Moreover, constituency interests were also important for the “vote switchers”, i.e. those MPs that supported the overall government policy stance in the first round, but opposed the Spanish-Italian trade agreement in the second.     

Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections

Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the county-level supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of 2008, which followed an unprecedented swing from very generous mortgage underwriting standards to a severe contraction of mortgage credit. Voters responded to the credit crunch by shifting their support away from the Republican Presidential candidate in 2008. That shift was large and particularly pronounced in states that typically vote Republican, and in swing states. Without it McCain would have received half the votes needed in nine crucial swing states to reverse the outcome of the election. We extend our analysis to the Presidential elections from 1996 to 2012 and find that voters only react to contractions, not expansions, of credit, and reactions are similar for Democratic and Republican incumbent parties.